Abstract
The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.
Highlights
Climate change represents a serious threat for Mesoamerican countries due to the multiple impacts predicted to directly affect the population as well as various sectors of the economy [1], [2]
Exposure According to the climate change models, total annual precipitation in all countries is predicted to decrease by 2050
The most decisive climatic variables for the predicted decrease in climatic suitability for coffee were the increase in maximum mean temperature of the hottest month
Summary
Climate change represents a serious threat for Mesoamerican countries due to the multiple impacts predicted to directly affect the population as well as various sectors of the economy [1], [2]. The Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators developed by Yohe suggested high exposure to climate change for the Mesoamerican and Caribbean Region [14]. Climate projections indicate that increases in temperature will reduce crop yields in general [3] and those of Arabica coffee, one of the region’s major exports. Studies in Ethiopia and Kenya have foreseen significant impacts of climate change on the distribution of wild coffee and coffee pests [7], [8], in the later case extending the areas affected by coffee berry-borer
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