An Integrated Delphi-AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach toward Ranking and Selection of Renewable Energy Resources in Pakistan

Yasir Ahmed Solangi,Nayyar Hussain Mirjat,Qingmei Tan,Muhammad Ikram,Muhammad Waris Ali Khan,Gordhan Das Valasai

doi:10.3390/pr7020118

Abstract

Pakistan has long relied on fossil fuels for electricity generation. This is despite the fact that the country is blessed with enormous renewable energy (RE) resources, which can significantly diversify the fuel mix for electricity generation. In this study, various renewable resources of Pakistan—solar, hydro, biomass, wind, and geothermal energy—are analyzed by using an integrated Delphi-analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (F-TOPSIS)-based methodology. In the first phase, the Delphi method was employed to define and select the most important criteria for the selection of RE resources. This process identified four main criteria, i.e., economic, environmental, technical, and socio-political aspects, which are further supplemented by 20 sub-criteria. AHP is later used to obtain the weights of each criterion and the sub-criteria of the decision model. The results of this study reveal wind energy as the most feasible RE resource for electricity generation followed by hydropower, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy. The sensitivity analysis of the decision model results shows that the results of this study are significant, reliable, and robust. The study provides important insights related to the prioritizing of RE resources for electricity generation and can be used to undertake policy decisions toward sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

Highlights

Energy is one of the key drivers for sustainable growth and economy of any country
An attempt has been made in the context of Pakistan to address this decision problem by considering four main criteria and 20 sub-criteria to evaluate five renewable energy (RE) resources for the electricity generation in Pakistan
The calculations are partly based on actual objective data for priority weightage/ranking associated with sub-criteria

Summary

Introduction

Energy is one of the key drivers for sustainable growth and economy of any country. In this era, the measure of the development of any economy is synonymous with the level of energy consumption. Energy, which is crucial in economic, environmental, technical, and socio-political aspects, has become one of the most discussed issues in recent times. The quantity of reserves of fossil fuels differs from one country to another. This situation has, resulted in an unavoidable economic dependency, major environmental concerns, technological issues, important social consequences, and serious political conflicts [2].

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Conclusion