An innovative methodology for establishing societal life risk criteria for dams: A case study to reservoir dam failure events in China

Abstract

Because of the uncertainty regarding the potential loss of life, it is difficult to use societal life risk criteria for dams established based on existing methods and the related research. Based on existing dam safety standards, dam safety conditions, and the opinions of the public on dam risks, an innovative methodology, i.e. P–P curve, was proposed to establish societal life risk criteria for dams. The annual probability of dam failure, population at risk, and dam height, which have the most significant and direct impacts on the potential loss of life, were selected as the basic indices. Taking China as an example, societal life risk criteria for the dams of five types of reservoirs were established; in these criteria, the heights of 30 m and 70 m were proposed as the bases for upgrading the risk criteria for the dams of small-type reservoirs, medium-type and large (2)-type reservoirs, respectively. The proposed methodology was designed to be more practical in determining the risk levels for dams because the values of the basic indices are considerably easier to determine than those of risk criteria based on the existing methods.