Abstract
Extreme weather events have strong impacts on agriculture and crop insurance. In France, drought (2003, 2011, 2017, and 2018) and excess of water (2016) are considered the most significant events in terms of economic losses. The crop (re)insurance industry must estimate its financial exposure to climatic events in terms of the average annual losses and potential extreme damages. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to develop a model that links meteorological indices to crop yield losses with a specific focus on extreme climatic events. We designed a meteorological index (DOWKI: Drought and Overwhelmed Water Key Indicator) based on a water balance cumulative anomaly that can explain drought and excess of water at the department scale. We propose a crop damage model calibrated by combining historical yield records and the DOWKI values. To estimate the financial exposure of insured crops at a national level, stochastic simulations of the DOWKI were performed to produce one thousand years of yield losses. Our objective was to estimate the effect of climatic extremes affecting the global production. Simulated average annual losses and the possible maximum claim for three crops (soft winter wheat, winter barley, and sunflower) are presented in the results.
Highlights
The Drought and Overwhelmed Water Key Indicator (DOWKI) was initially based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), computed as a difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration with a different standardization method
A new climatic index was proposed in this paper in order to predict crop yield anomalies due to drought and excess of water
The global objective of this multi-year project is to predict the impact of climate change on the financial exposure ofinsurance companies
Summary
The last severe droughts in France in 2017 and 2018 had a severe impact on all crops, including grasslands. Climate change will have an impact on long-term trends of yield, which is due to changes in the global temperature, rainfall, and CO2 rates [5,6,7,8,9,10]. In terms of climatic accidents, due to the low frequency of catastrophes, it is difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on the hazard [1,11,12]. A drought like 2003 could become recurrent in the close future and the financial consequences should be studied [13,14,15]
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