An informational framework for human population dynamics

Abstract

Human civilization is considered a system producing and storing useful information (knowledge). Starting from the fact that biological parameters of humans (concerning, first of all, properties of genome and brain) were little changed over the past million years, we find that: (1) human population increases exponentially with storing knowledge (if there are no environmental limitations); (2) population size is proportional to the total information production rate. These statements allow explaining the well-known ‘explosive’ (hyperbolic with time) law of human population growth and thereby disclosing its informational nature. This mode of growth has operated during the past million years and ceases its operation in our time. Deviations from this law increasing since the late twentieth century are caused by environmental limitations. Population dynamics in this transition period can also be obtained from the informational background. For this purpose, we estimate information content and production rate. Humankind has stored up to date: ∼10 14 bits in external memory (funds of libraries), ∼10 13 bits in genetic memory and ∼10 12–10 13 bits in neural memory. Information is produced on the channels of genetic, neural and external memory with approximately equal rates ∼10 1–10 2 bits per capita per year. We introduce an informational paradigm, which states that information is an independent, developing entity obeying its own evolutionary laws. This paradigm allows constructing informational dynamics of civilization based on the least action principle. Dynamic equations are derived for different modes of information production. On this basis, we find equations of world demographic dynamics, which describe not only the explosive growth, but also the present-day transition period with gradual cessation of growth and with different scenarios of subsequent population trend: from stabilization at high levels to reduction to the Earth's long-term sustainable level. The equations obtained generalize some current models of global population growth with regard to the dynamics of information production and show how the intrinsic controllability of civilization and environmental limitations can, via model parameters, influence the subsequent development. Altogether, the informational framework developed offers a regular method for finding different phenomenological models of population dynamics. Finally, we formulate the informational imperative stating that the global demographic process adjusts to the accumulation of information. Thus, information is the only driving force of the development of civilization.