An Indirect Treatment Comparison of Lenvatinib for the First-Line Treatment of Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Abstract

This study compared the relative efficacy of first-line lenvatinib, a standard-of-care treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC), vs licensed/license in-progress comparators. Using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and network meta-analysis (NMA), updated evidence for lenvatinib monotherapy from LEAP-002, in addition to evidence from REFLECT, was included in the analyses. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were identified via systematic review. REFLECT and LEAP-002 investigated lenvatinib in uHCC, with patient-level data available for each; however, only REFLECT included a comparator arm of interest (sorafenib). The lenvatinib arm from LEAP-002 was adjusted to match aggregate data for confounding factors from REFLECT using IPTW. Weighted Cox regressions, including matching variables as covariates, were used to derive hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). These HR estimates were included in Bayesian NMAs to compare lenvatinib with comparators; survival was significantly improved if the 95% credible interval for the HR did not include 1.0. Scenario analyses explored alternative choices for IPTW estimators. Eight RCTs (including REFLECT) and the single-arm adjusted lenvatinib data from LEAP-002 were included in the NMA base case. Lenvatinib demonstrated significant improvement in OS compared with sorafenib 400 mg twice daily (BID) and significant improvement in PFS compared with sorafenib 400 mg BID, tremelimumab 300 mg plus durvalumab 1500 mg every 4 weeks (Q4W), and durvalumab 1500 mg Q4W. These results suggest that patients with uHCC treated with lenvatinib have similar or significantly improved OS and PFS compared with licensed/license in-progress therapies.