An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Predicting the Energy Consumption of University Residence

Abstract

Future energy planning relies on understanding how much energy is produced and consumed. In response, this study developed a multihybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for students’ residences, using the University of Johannesburg residence, South Africa as a case study. The model input variables are wind speed, temperature, and humidity, with the output being the equivalent energy consumption for the student housing. While the particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique is versatile and widely used, it falls short by exhibiting premature convergence. To address this problem, the velocity update equation of the original PSO algorithm is modified by incorporating a dynamic linear decreasing inertia weight, which improves the PSO algorithm’s convergence behaviour and aids both local and global search. Following that, the modified PSO (MPSO) is used to optimize the ANFIS parameters for the best model prediction. A comparative analysis is conducted between the MPSO, the original PSO, and six other hybrid models using a dataset division of 70% for training and 30% for testing. Performance evaluation was carried out using three well-known performance benchmarks: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and coefficient of variation (RCoV). The experimental results show that the performance of the proposed MPSO-ANFIS outperformed other methods with the least values of the RMSE (1.8928 KWh), MAD (1.5051 KWh), and RCoV (0.1370), respectively. Furthermore, when compared to the PSO-ANFIS, the MPSO-ANFIS demonstrated improvements in RMSE, MAD, and RCoV with 1.58%, 2.11%, and 5.23%, respectively. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the MPSO-ANFIS provides better prediction accuracy which is vital for strategic energy planning.