An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico

Zhen Li,Walter Johnson

doi:10.3390/jmse7020041

Abstract

The oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) model is a tool used by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to evaluate oil spill risks to biological, physical, and socioeconomic resources that could be exposed to oil spill contact from oil and gas leasing, exploration, or development on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Using long-term hindcast winds and ocean currents, the OSRA model generates hundreds of thousands of trajectories from hypothetical oil spill locations and derives the probability of contact to these environmental resources in the U.S. OCS. This study generates probability of oil spill contact maps by initiating trajectories from hypothetical oil spill points over the entire planning areas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) OCS and tabulating the contacts over the entire waters in the GOM. Therefore, a probability of oil spill contact database that stores information of the spill points and contacts can be created for a given set of wind and current data such that the probability of oil spill contact to any environmental resources from future leasing areas can be estimated without a rerun of the OSRA model. The method can be applied to other OCS regions and help improve BOEM’s decision-making process.

Highlights

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM), a semi-enclosed sea bordering the western Atlantic Ocean in the east and connected with the Caribbean Sea to the south, remains an important ecosystem that provides the Gulf Coast communities and nations with abundant fisheries and energy resources
Under the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lands Act, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) within the U.S Department of the Interior (USDOI) is responsible for managing the oil and gas resources in the OCS, with a goal of balancing the benefits derived from development of these resources with environmental protection
Because the oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) model simulates the trajectories for days, a trajectory launched at December 1998 will need the first 30 days of data from year 1999 to complete a 30-day trajectory analysis

Summary

Introduction

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM), a semi-enclosed sea bordering the western Atlantic Ocean in the east and connected with the Caribbean Sea to the south, remains an important ecosystem that provides the Gulf Coast communities and nations with abundant fisheries and energy resources. Offshore oil production in the U.S GOM Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) generally has increased over the past several decades, partly due to advancing technology. According to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCS Lands Act), established in 1953, the U.S Department of the Interior (USDOI) has jurisdiction over OCS lands—submerged lands located generally 3 miles from state coastlines. Under the OCS Lands Act, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) within the USDOI is responsible for managing the oil and gas resources in the OCS, with a goal of balancing the benefits derived from development of these resources with environmental protection. Prior to any offshore oil and gas leasing or approval of exploration and development plans, BOEM is required to prepare environmental analyses such as Environmental

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