An improved meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth estimation method by combining a physical mechanism model with a two-stage model

Abstract

A two-stage model integrating a spatiotemporal linear mixed effect (STLME) and a geographic weight regression (GWR) model is proposed to improve the meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval method (Elterman retrieval model-ERM). The proposed model is referred to as the STG-ERM model. The STG-ERM model is applied over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China for the years 2019 and 2020. The results show that data coverage increased by 39.0% in 2019 and 40.5% in 2020. Cross-validation of the retrieval results versus multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) AOD shows the substantial improvement of the STG-ERM model over earlier meteorological models for AOD estimation, with a determination coefficient (R2) of daily AOD of 0.86, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) and the relative prediction error (RPE) of 0.10 and 36.14% in 2019 and R2 of 0.86, RMSE of 0.12 and RPE of 37.86% in 2020. The fused annual mean AOD indicates strong spatial variation with high value in south plain and low value in northwestern mountainous areas of the BTH region. The overall spatial seasonal mean AOD ranges from 0.441 to 0.586, demonstrating strongly seasonal variation. The coverage of STG-ERM retrieved AOD, as determined in this exercise by leaving out part of the meteorological data, affects the accuracy of fused AOD. The coverage of the meteorological data has smaller impact on the fused AOD in the districts with low annual mean AOD of less than 0.35 than that in the districts with high annual mean AOD of greater than 0.6. If available, continuous daily meteorological data with high spatiotemporal resolution can improve the model performance and the accuracy of fused AOD. The STG-ERM model may serve as a valuable approach to provide data to fill gaps in satellite-retrieved AOD products.