An HFM‐CREAM model for the assessment of human reliability and quantification

Abstract

AbstractHuman reliability analysis (HRA) is a proactive approach to model and evaluate systematic human errors and has been extensively implemented in various complicated systems. The assessment of human errors relies heavily on the knowledge and experience of experts in real‐world cases. Moreover, there are usually specific sorts of uncertainty while experts use linguistic labels to evaluate human failure events. In this context, this paper seeks to establish a new model based on the hesitant fuzzy matrix (HFM) and the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) to conduct a quantitative analysis of human errors. This model handles the multiple crisp scores of the common performance conditions (CPCs) given by experts according to the context description in terms of CPCs, determines the weights of CPCs by the HFM, and elicits the human error probability (HEP) point estimation formula considering consequences based on the CREAM. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the presented HFM‐CREAM model are demonstrated through the emergency response analysis of the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) in nuclear power plant.