An Extended FMEA Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Type-2 Intuitionistic Fuzzy VIKOR for the Railway Train Risk Prioritization.

Yong Fu,Xinwang Liu,Weizhong Wang,Limin Jia,Yong Qin

doi:10.3390/e22121418

Abstract

This paper aims toward the improvement of the limitations of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and examines the crucial failure modes and components for railway train operation. In order to overcome the drawbacks of current FMEA, this paper proposes a novel risk prioritization method based on cumulative prospect theory and type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR approach. Type-2 intuitionistic VIKOR handles the combination of the risk factors with their entropy weight. Triangular fuzzy number intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TFNIFNs) applied as type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (Type-2 IFNs) are adopted to depict the uncertainty in the risk analysis. Then, cumulative prospect theory is employed to deal with the FMEA team member’s risk sensitiveness and decision-making psychological behavior. Finally, a numerical example of the railway train bogie system is selected to illustrate the application and feasibility of the proposed extended FMEA model in this paper, and a comparison study is also performed to validate the practicability and effectiveness of the novel FMEA model. On this basis, this study can provide guidance for the risk prioritization of railway trains and indicate a direction for further research of risk management of rail traffic.

Highlights

As a kind of reliability analysis and risk management technique, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has been widely used in rail traffic risk analysis [1,2]
According to the discussion above, in this paper, we develop an extended FMEA model based on cumulative prospect theory and type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR for the railway train risk prioritization
This paper develops an extended FMEA model based on cumulative prospect theory and type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR for the railway train risk prioritization

Summary

Introduction

As a kind of reliability analysis and risk management technique, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has been widely used in rail traffic risk analysis [1,2]. The risk prioritization of every failure mode can be obtained by a risk priority number (RPN) through three risk factors of occurrence (O), severity (S) and detection (D). Despite the simplicity and understandability of the RPN method for the railway train risk analysis and prioritization, it still possesses many drawbacks. The multiplication for the RPN can be questionable and sensitive to the variations in risk factors calculation. Different combination of the risk factor O, S and D can produce the same RPN value, which is not effective in practical risk management The most criticized drawbacks are presented as follows [4,5,6,7]:

Objectives

Discussion

Conclusion