An Extended FMEA Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Type-2 Intuitionistic Fuzzy VIKOR for the Railway Train Risk Prioritization.

Abstract

This paper aims toward the improvement of the limitations of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and examines the crucial failure modes and components for railway train operation. In order to overcome the drawbacks of current FMEA, this paper proposes a novel risk prioritization method based on cumulative prospect theory and type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR approach. Type-2 intuitionistic VIKOR handles the combination of the risk factors with their entropy weight. Triangular fuzzy number intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TFNIFNs) applied as type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (Type-2 IFNs) are adopted to depict the uncertainty in the risk analysis. Then, cumulative prospect theory is employed to deal with the FMEA team member’s risk sensitiveness and decision-making psychological behavior. Finally, a numerical example of the railway train bogie system is selected to illustrate the application and feasibility of the proposed extended FMEA model in this paper, and a comparison study is also performed to validate the practicability and effectiveness of the novel FMEA model. On this basis, this study can provide guidance for the risk prioritization of railway trains and indicate a direction for further research of risk management of rail traffic.