A novel FMEA approach for submarine pipeline risk analysis based on IVIFRN and ExpTODIM-PROMETHEE-II

Abstract

The failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) approach based on TODIM has been widely applied in risk analysis in several fields. To fill the gap in relevant research in the field of submarine pipeline risk analysis and to address possible problems in the classical TODIM method, a novel FMEA model is proposed in this paper. Firstly, an improvement to the existing interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy rough number (IVIFRN) theory is made and used to collect expert opinions better to consider individual and group uncertainty. Secondly, ExpTODIM, which is more in line with prospect theory, is combined with the PROMETHEE-II method. And it also incorporates weight calculation methods such as the maximizing deviation method for ranking failure modes. Thirdly, the exponential entropy weight method based on the improved IVIFRN theory is combined with the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) for application in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to complete the calculation of risk values. Fourthly, the proposed novel FMEA approach is applied to the risk analysis of the submarine pipeline to obtain its failure mode ranking and risk value results. Comparisons with other methods in concept and example analysis show that the proposed method is relatively reliable and has certain advantages over other current FMEA methods based on MCDM. In particular, the proposed method overcomes the theoretical problems of the classical TODIM and is more consistent with logic. It also improves the accuracy and comprehensiveness of analysis results, which can provide a valid and accurate reference for the practical engineering of submarine pipelines.