An exploratory model-based design of experiments approach to aid parameters identification and reduce model prediction uncertainty

Abstract

The management of trade-off between experimental design space exploration and information maximization is still an open question in the field of optimal experimental design. In classical optimal experimental design methods, the uncertainty of model prediction throughout the design space is not always assessed after parameter identification and parameters precision maximization do not guarantee that the model prediction variance is minimized in the whole domain of model utilization. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) method that enhances space exploration and reduces model prediction uncertainty by using a mapping of model prediction variance (G-optimality mapping). This explorative MBDoE (eMBDoE) named G-map eMBDoE is tested on two models of increasing complexity and compared against conventional factorial design of experiments, Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling and MBDoE methods. The results show that G-map eMBDoE is more efficient in exploring the experimental design space when compared to a standard MBDoE and outperforms classical design of experiments methods in terms of model prediction uncertainty reduction and parameters precision maximization.