An Expert System for Assessing Technogenic Risks of Electrical Installations Using Temporal Logic

Abstract

The article presents an expert system in which knowledge bases formalize technogenic risks in electrical installations of agricultural enterprises. The knowledge bases contain rules for the influence of risk factors on the value of the technogenic risk of the electrical installations. The rules are described as a set of fuzzy linguistic statements. Fuzzy linguistic statements can be temporal. Simple temporal statements are formed by application to a simple linguistic statement of one of the unitary operations of the past time “always in the past” or “at some time in the past” of temporal logic. Temporal composite statements are formed of simple statements using the binary fuzzy logical operations “AND,” “OR,” and “priority AND” as ligaments. Using the developed expert system, estimation of the risk of an accident at an electrical installation of AO Altaikraienergo Network Co. was carried out both without and with the use of temporal operators. In the first case, magnitude of the risk of an accident (basis) RB =2.3 × 10–4, which is evaluated as valid. In the second case (RT =1.4 × 10–3), an unacceptable (high) risk was obtained. Analysis of electrical facilities of the considered production facility also confirmed noncompliance with requirements of electrical safety. Our research showed that the proposed expert system for assessing technogenic risks of electrical installations using temporal logic gives a more adequate assessment of the technogenic safety of the considered production facility.