Abstract
Production facilities that have complex electric power structure should be provided with an efficient system of diagnostics and control of electrical installations operating modes. Constant monitoring of electrical installations parameters is required to create a database and a knowledge base for the purpose of forecasting and managing technogenic risks at the functioning of the «Man — Electrical Installation — Environment» system. The methods used for modeling hazard of electrical installations are providing for risk assessment in the weakly structurered man-machine system «Man — Electrical Installation — Environment» with a causal relationship that interact with the risk-forming factors that are directly effecting on the technogenic risks. Methods of temporal logic with the construction of fuzzy modeling algorithms allow to determine the dynamic properties of the system under consideration. The occurrence of the risk of a dangerous situation is considered as a technogenic risk and depends on the probability of a dangerous technogenic situation with subsequent injuries and damage. In this regard, considering the peculiarities of managing technogenic risks of the electric power infrastructure of an enterprise, the compilation of a simulation model includes the stages of forming the knowledge base by an expert way using the method of fuzzy inference for dynamic descriptions of the «Man — Electrical Installation — Environment» system. They consider the influence of time-related factors between the fuzzy signs of risk-forming factors and the technogenic risk value. The interaction and mutual influence of risk-forming factors are described using the logical signs «AND» and «OR» with the fuzzy operation «Priority And». During the temporal-logical analysis, the knowledge base was formed with the given temporal relationships of risk-forming factors. As a result of fire risks calculation using fuzzy-temporal statements and without them, the corresponding values were obtained: 235·10–6 in the first case, 98·10–6 — in the second one. Given that the standard fire risk value is 1·10–6, the risk level will be acceptable.
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