An Evaluation of the Influence of Meteorological Factors and a Pollutant Emission Inventory on PM2.5 Prediction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on a Deep Learning Method

Abstract

In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network approach is employed to evaluate the prediction performance of PM2.5 in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH). The proposed method is evaluated using the hourly air quality datasets from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ERA5 (ECMWF-ERA5), and Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) for the years 2016 and 2017. The predicted PM2.5 concentrations demonstrate a strong correlation with the observed values (R2 = 0.871–0.940) in the air quality dataset. Furthermore, the model exhibited the best performance in situations of heavy pollution (PM2.5 > 150 μg/m3) and during the winter season, with respective R2 values of 0.689 and 0.915. In addition, the influence of ECMWF-ERA5’s hourly meteorological factors was assessed, and the results revealed regional heterogeneity on a large scale. Further evaluation was conducted by analyzing the chemical components of the MEIC inventory on the prediction performance. We concluded that the same temporal profile may not be suitable for addressing emission inventories in a large area with a deep learning method.