Abstract
In recent years, many jurisdictions have implemented “intensive” supervision regimens for offenders on probation or parole as alternatives to routine probation and/or incarceration. Prior studies often failed to distinguish between two distinct potential effects of intensive supervision. The first effect is a reduction in the propensity to commit any new offenses, and may be viewed as reflecting a rehabilitative or deterrent model. The second possible effect is a reduction in the opportunity to reoffend, caused by the court's response to misbehavior on the part of the probationer or parolee—a risk control or selective incapacitation model. The current study is an experimental evaluation of an intensive aftercare probation program for serious juvenile offenders. The program had a dramatic impact on the frequency, but not the incidence, of recidivism. This finding suggests that the value of intensive supervision lies in its risk control components (a system response effect) rather than in its ability to reduce the propensity to reoffend (an aftercare effect).
Published Version
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