Abstract
The transportation sector accounts for nearly 19% of total energy consumption in Turkey, where energy demand increases rapidly depending on the economic and human population growth and the increasing number of motor vehicles. Hence, the estimation of future energy demand is of great importance to design, plan and use the transportation systems more efficiently, for which a reliable quantitative estimation is of primary concern. However, the estimation of transport energy demand is a complex task, since various model parameters are interacting with each other. In this study, artificial neural networks were used to estimate the energy demand in transportation sector in Turkey. Gross domestic product, oil prices, population, vehicle-km, ton-km and passenger-km were selected as parameters by considering the data for the period from 1975 to 2016. Seven models in total were created and analyzed. The best yielding model with the parameters of oil price, population and motor vehicle-km was determined to have the lowest error and the highest R2 values. This model was selected to estimate transport energy demand for the years 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2030.
Highlights
Socioeconomic development of societies may change individuals’ vital activities, increasing their energy demand
Seven different models were set up to estimate the artificial neural networks (ANN) models and the model which is the closest to real values is to be used for estimating the future energy demand in the transport sector
Root mean square error (RMSE) is known as the quadratic average, which is a statistical measure for the quantities of change
Summary
Socioeconomic development of societies may change individuals’ vital activities, increasing their energy demand. The oil consumption rates in the transport sector are at 70% [4]. There are two reasons for this high ratio: the first one is the increase in private vehicle use and ownership; the second reason is the tendency in the prices of petroleum products When it comes to the consumption of oil, the domestic sources of Turkey cannot meet the needs. Turkey has an average consumption of 601,000 barrels of oil and petroleum products per day and 47,000 barrels of total consumption are provided by Turkey’s domestic sources, and the remaining 554,000 barrels are imported [5]. Transportation demand increased more than gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey when national economic parameters are compared to those of the transportation sector. Seven ANN models were developed, where the variable sets differentiate considerably, and previous models in the literature with different variables are compared
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