Prediction of transportation energy demand in Türkiye using stacking ensemble models: Methodology and comparative analysis

Abstract

The transportation sector accounts for 61.5% of global oil consumption and is responsible for 29% of the world’s total energy demand. Passenger transportation utilizes around 50%–60% of the energy used for transportation-related activities. Accurate prediction of future transportation energy consumption is essential for governments to make well-informed decisions regarding transportation infrastructure development and utilization, which supports the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and advances the shift to a net-zero carbon economy. With the expected increase in population, vehicles, and economic growth, it is essential to predict the energy demand to ensure sustainable urban transportation. This is crucial not only for economic prosperity but also for promoting human health and mitigating carbon emissions. Therefore, transportation energy demand prediction plays a vital role in designing sustainable future urban transportation and making informed energy investment and policy decisions. This study proposes a novel methodology and investigates for the application of machine learning stacking ensemble method with hyperparameter tuning and multicollinearity removal to predict transportation energy demand in Turkey based on historic data from 1975–2019. The dataset includes GDP, year, vehicle miles traveled, population, oil price, passenger miles traveled, and ton-miles traveled as features. A performance evaluation and comparison of 19 machine learning algorithms is first carried out to find the best candidate for the stacking ensemble models, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. This performance comparison uses all features and also only two of them during the training phase, and it takes into consideration a 4-fold cross-validation. A combination of permutation importance and hierarchical clustering algorithm on the Spearman rank-order correlations is used for dimensionality reduction of the dataset. Extra Tree Regressor and ADABoost Regressor, which are both placed in the second level of the suggested models, are two meta-regressors that are proposed for stacking ensembles because they perform better compared to single machine learning algorithm. In total, eight stacking ensemble models – four for each of the meta-regressors – were developed and investigated considering all features and only two of them separately. Six metrics – R-squared, MSE, MAE, RMSE, RMSLE, and MAPE – are used to assess all models. The Extra Trees Regressor can be used as a meta-regressor in the best proposed stacking ensemble model to predict the energy demand for transportation. This model achieves an R-squared value of approximately 0.99 when all the features are taken into consideration. When only two features from the dataset are considered the same stacking ensemble model can achieve an accuracy of 0.98. These findings have the potential to contribute to the development of more accurate models and results, which can, in turn, lead to improved strategies for managing future transportation energy demand. Additionally, this research can support the advancement of alternative technologies that promote sustainable urban development, ultimately helping to move towards a net-zero carbon economy.