An escape route planning model based on wildfire prediction information and travel rate of firefighters

Abstract

Background When firefighters evacuate from wildfires, escape routes are crucial safety measures, providing pre-defined pathways to a safety zone. Their key evaluation criterion is the time it takes for firefighters to travel along the planned escape routes. Aims While shorter travel times can help firefighters reach safety zones faster, this may expose them to the threat of wildfires. Therefore, the safety of the routes must be considered. Methods We introduced a new evaluation indicator called the safety index by predicting the growth trend of wildfires. We then proposed a comprehensive evaluation cost function as an escape route planning model, which includes two factors: (1) travel time; and (2) safety of the escape route. The relationship between the two factors is dynamically adjusted through real time factor. The safety window within real time factor provides ideal safety margins between firefighters and wildfires, ensuring the overall safety of escape routes. Key results Compared with other models, the escape routes planned by the final improved model not only effectively avoid wildfires, but also provide relatively short travel time and reliable safety. Conclusions This study ensures sufficient safety margins for firefighters escaping in wildfire environments. Implications The escape route model described in this study offers a broader perspective on the study of escape route planning.