An Epistemological Peregrination

Abstract

Once upon a time, at a race track far, far away, a young bank teller named Peregrine was spending a pleasant evening watching and wagering on the trotters. Though Peregrine was not a frequent spectator at the track, he did enjoy scanning his racing form and trying to devise profitable betting techniques. But, alas, his strategies were hardly of the creative (nor, sad to say, lucrative) sort, and by about the sixth race he always found himself throwing strategy to the wind and simply placing his bet on the horse which looked best to his untrained eye. And thus it was as Peregrine was walking down to the rail that he made his unexpected discovery. For there by the fence, though partially hidden by a shrub, lay an old weather-beaten cardboard box. Removing it from the shrub and brushing off the top, he saw the words 'Open here' printed with an arrow pointing off to the side. Peregrine was not one to disobey directions when they were clearly given, so he followed the arrow off to the side and carefully opened the box. Peregrine did not know what to expect, but this uncertainty on his part did not diminish his surprise at finding, under several layers of white tissue paper, an amazingly well-preserved straw hat. Peregrine gave a small laugh, but his mirth quickly dissipated, for on turning the hat around he found, hanging from the brim by a string, a tag with the simple but singular inscription, 'Wear me'. Peregrine looked puzzled for a moment. Then he smiled and said, 'Oh well, I will try anything once!' (This brave boast was of course untrue, for as we have said, Peregrine was a bank teller.) So, removing the tag and scanning the crowd to make sure that he was among strangers, he placed the hat on his head. Peregrine expected no results from this bit of whimsy on his part, and thus he found what happened next especially curious. The horses were warming up for the sixth race, and as they passed in front of him, Peregrine found himself staring intently at Number Six. Looking at his racing form, Peregrine discovered that Number Six was named Rocking-horse Winner, was six years old, and had never won a race. He looked at the tote board; the odds against Rocking-horse Winner were 66 to i. He looked at the horse again. And suddenly, and quite unexpectedly, he found himself saying to himself, 'That horse is going to win. I don't know why I think so, but I firmly believe it.' Peregrine was quite befuddled by this situation, for he was not accustomed to entertaining uninvited beliefs. Nevertheless, time was short. So