An ensemble method of full wavelet packet transform and neural network for short term electrical load forecasting

Abstract

Due to high penetration of distributed energy resources, integration of intermittent renewable energy resources and deployment of demand-side management, highly accurate short-term load forecasting becomes increasingly important. This paper proposes a full wavelet neural network approach for short-term load forecasting, which is an ensemble method of full wavelet packet transform and neural networks. The full wavelet packet transform model is used to decompose the load profile and various features into several components with different frequencies and these components are used to train the neural networks. To perform load forecasting, the full wavelet packet transform model decomposes features into various components that are fed into the trained neural networks, and the outputs of the neural networks are constructed as the forecasted load. The proposed model is applied for load prediction in the electric market of Ontario, Canada. Simulation results show that the proposed approach reduces the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by 20% in comparison with the traditional neural network method. The proposed approach can be used by utilities and system operators to forecast electricity consumption with high accuracy, which is highly demanded for renewable energy integration, demand-side management and power system operation.