An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

Abstract

This paper describes the regulated agricultural commodity futures market of China, focusing on six actively traded futures: corn, strong gluten wheat, No. 1 soybean, soymeal, cotton, and white sugar. A novel skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is employed to characterize price dynamics with government controls. The empirical analysis reveals significant skew phenomena in these six futures and indicates that the price dynamics are influenced by state policy. The observed skew phenomena are most notable in grain futures, with relatively weaker, but statistically significant, evidence of skew phenomena in oilseed and soft futures markets. In addition, generalized quasi-likelihood ratio tests show that the skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is superior to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.