An empirical relationship between seismic risk perception and physical vulnerability: A case study of Malakand, Pakistan

Abstract

Losses from earthquakes have been an alarming issue in urban Asia and other developing countries. Studies assessing the seismic vulnerability of buildings is necessary to exercise risk reduction measures. It is equally essential to measure the risk perception of people for the effective application of risk reduction policies. The aim of this research work is to explore linkages between people seismic risk perceptions and physical vulnerability of their buildings against earthquakes. Geographically, Pakistan lies on both the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, making it highly susceptible to earthquakes. District Malakand, a high earthquake risk area, was chosen as a case study. Based on Yamane method, 400 households' samples were collected from two sub-districts, using the simple random sampling method. Data were collected by conducting face-to-face interviews through semi-structured questionnaires and rapid visual screening of buildings. Statistical methods and simple regression modeling were used to determine the relationship between risk perception and physical vulnerability. The results show that seismic risk perception varies among households with house type, past experiences and losses, capacities, and preparedness. People risk perception was significantly influenced by the vulnerability of their residences. A significant and positive correlation between overall risk perception and physical vulnerability imply strong association within them. Thus, in the absence of solid data for measuring the seismic vulnerability of buildings, risk perception may be a good replacement for working out earthquake risk reduction measures.