An Empirical Orthogonal Function Study of the Ionospheric TEC Predicted Using the TIEGCM Model over the South Atlantic Anomaly in 2002 and 2008

Abstract

In this study, the variability of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) in the solar maximum of 2002 and the solar minimum of 2008 were compared by using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The ionospheric TEC data were simulated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). The first three EOFs accounted for 94.8% and 93.86% of the variability in the data in 2002 and 2008, respectively. The results showed that the TEC variations of the first three EOFs were generally consistent in 2002 and 2008. The first mode showed the equatorial anomaly caused by plasma drift and the east–west asymmetry possibly caused by the change in geomagnetic declination and zonal wind; EOF2 exhibited the zonal variation influenced by the solar EUV radiation and the semiannual variation possibly controlled by the [O/N2], solar zenith angle, and atmospheric circulation. EOF3 suggested an equatorial anomaly and winter anomaly influenced by the [O/N2] variation. However, the values and amplitude variations in the TEC were significantly greater in the solar maximum than that in the solar minimum, and the spring–autumn asymmetry of the TEC was more obvious in the solar minimum. In addition, we used the EOF method to extract the annual variation characteristics of the time coefficients and carried out a correlation analysis. The results showed that the annual variation in the TEC in 2002 was mainly affected by the solar EUV radiation, which was strongly correlated with F10.7 (r = 0.7348). In contrast, the TEC was mainly influenced by the geomagnetic activity in 2008 and had a strong correlation with Dst (r = −0.7898).