An Empirical Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Selected Cereals Acreage in Nigeria: A Ricardian Approach

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between the acreage of selected cereal crops and climate variables for the period 1995 – 2021 in Nigeria. The study was based on maize, rice, millet and guinea corn for all the states in Nigeria for the period of study. Data for acreage of selected cereal crops for all the time period were collected from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S) while data on the two important climate variables required for crop growth – temperature and precipitation – used for the analysis were obtained from the Nigerian Metrological Agency. The results indicated positive response of the acreage of the cereal crops to increase in temperature which is possibly due to other factors that serve in cushioning the effect of the temperature such as irrigation; rainfall has mixed relationship with the acreage of the cereal crops except; the negative coefficient of trend variable shows a negative relationship with the acreage of selected cereal crops. The results of the elasticity of cereals acreage to climate variables show that the acreage of rice is inelastic to rainfall but elastic to temperature. However, maize, millet and guinea corn acreage are all appreciably elastic to precipitation and temperature changes. These results also reveal that with the passage of years and climate factors running contrary to agricultural productivities, cereal crops farmers in Nigeria were adopting new measures to cope with the negative effect of climate change. Climate adaptation measures which include the use of drought or heat resistant varieties, early sowing, mixed cropping, tillage system alteration and the utilization of land that has been considered too marginal for agricultural cultivation reduces the negative effects of climate change on cereal crops acreage and enhances the positive factors.