An Econometric Analysis of the Factors Affecting Sustainable Agricultural Development in Iraq for the period (1990-2020)

Abstract

Agricultural investments, agricultural capital accumulations and average per capita agricultural product are considered as important factors in raising levels of sustainable agricultural development, and it is important to quantify the relationship among these factors. The study aimed to measure the impact of some factors affecting sustainable agricultural development in Iraq. The variables used in this study are agricultural investment, accumulated agricultural capital and the average per capita agricultural product as independent variables, while sustainable agricultural development represents the dependent variable. The data for these variables are the time series covered the period from 1990 to 2020 obtained from Ministry of Planning - Central Statistical Organization (COS), Statistical Group for the years (1990-2020). The Johansen's cointegration method was used to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the study variables, and the Toda-Yamamato methodology was used to test the causality. The results showed the weak levels of sustainable agricultural development in Iraq during the period (1990-2020), as it did not exceed (0.160), and the reason for this may be due to the failure of most development indicators to keep pace with the increase in population as well as the unstable political and security conditions that faced Iraq during this period. Also, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables, as an average per capita agricultural product can causes the sustainable agricultural in the long-run, which requires the Ministry of Agricultural to promote the agricultural sector and pay more attention to the agricultural product, which seems to be one of the sources of sustainable agricultural development in the long-run. The research also recommends encouraging agricultural investments and overcoming obstacles towards targeted investments to promote the agricultural sector, especially investment in agricultural land reclamation, encouraging agricultural workers to maintain their work.