An augmented Cobb-Douglas production functional modeling of the impact of climate change on Teff yields in Ethiopia

Abstract

The study analyzed the impacts of climate change and related factors on yields of teff crop in Ethiopia using quantitative time series data for the period 1981 – 2018. The study adopted Augmented Cobb-Douglas Production Functional model to examine the impact of climate and non-climatic factors on yield of teff in the country. The study confirmed that long-season rainfall has negative and significant impact on yields of teff. The results indicate that an increase in rainfall during long-rainfall season, the period when crop vegetative and reproductive growth is high (J-S), revealed harmful impact on the yield of teff. This witnesses that excessive rainfall affects the yield of teff crop negatively. Conversely, the regression coefficient for maximum temperature and CO2 during crop growing season in teff growing areas portrayed positive and significant (at 5 percent) impact on yield of teff, implying that a rise in maximum temperature and CO2 concentration in teff growing areas would increase the yield of teff per unit area, i.e., would affect teff yield positively. Furthermore, the estimated coefficients for land area under teff crop production has positive and significant impact on teff yields. In general, based on the validating proofs of the current study, the hypothesis stating there is ‘‘no impact of rainfall and temperature variables’’ on yield of cereal crop is rejected, signifying that changes in climate adversely affects yields of teff, wheat and maize crops.