An attempt to validate HF propagation prediction conditions over Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

Ionospheric behavior plays an important role in high‐frequency (HF) radio propagation, which subsequently provides an opportunity for studying ionospheric variability and space weather effects. The continuous change in ionospheric conditions caused by space weather strongly affects HF propagation. The use of HF communication is still very relevant over the African continent, as seen by the requirements for services provided by the Regional Warning Center for Space Weather in Africa, and this has necessitated an investigation into the prediction capabilities of the existing HF propagation models currently used over this region. This paper presents the validation of HF propagation conditions through the ionosphere by using the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit (ICEPAC) model with real‐time data from international beacons located in Africa. The HF propagation results presented are for the circuits Ruaraka (5Z4B), Kenya (1.24°S, 36.88°E), and Pretoria (ZS6DN), South Africa (25.45°S, 28.10°E) to Hermanus (ZS1HMO), South Africa (34.27°S, 19.12°E). The potential of this model as compared to real‐time data in terms of propagation condition predictions is illustrated. An attempt to draw conclusions for the future improvement of HF propagation models is also presented. Results show that ICEPAC performs better for the 5Z4B‐ZS1HMO than for the ZS6DN‐ZS1HMO circuit, although it does, in general, provide a low‐accuracy prediction compared to the real‐time data. Thus certain parameters need to be investigated further for future improvement in the performance of the ICEPAC model over Africa.