Abstract
Abstract An analysis of the 11-year (1983–1993) skill of subjective 24-h thunderstorm probability forecasts made by staff and students at the State University of New York at Albany is presented. Skill is measured relative to the long-term National Weather Service climatology of thunder heard at 10 U.S. cities using the well-known Brier verification score. The 11-year average skill was 21.8% (standard deviation of 3.9%), and the annual increase in skill was a disappointing 0.1%. The sample correlation coefficient between the frequency of thunder events and the year-to-year variability of forecast skill was 0.53 for all cities combined.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
