Abstract
Abstract An analysis of the 11-year (1983–1993) skill of subjective 24-h thunderstorm probability forecasts made by staff and students at the State University of New York at Albany is presented. Skill is measured relative to the long-term National Weather Service climatology of thunder heard at 10 U.S. cities using the well-known Brier verification score. The 11-year average skill was 21.8% (standard deviation of 3.9%), and the annual increase in skill was a disappointing 0.1%. The sample correlation coefficient between the frequency of thunder events and the year-to-year variability of forecast skill was 0.53 for all cities combined.
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