An Assessment of the Implications of Biodiesel Consumption Promotion in the Transportation Sector for Thailand

Abstract

This paper assesses the implications of the promotion of biodiesel consumption in the Thai transportation sector in terms of energy, environment and agriculture. In order to analyse the implications, scenarios are modelled quantitatively to assess their impacts for the period 2019-2037. Scenarios developed in this paper represent various percentages of biodiesel blending mandates including REF (7% biodiesel blend), B10 (10% biodiesel blend) and B20 (20% biodiesel blend). The analytical tool employed to assess the scenario impacts is the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The analyses suggest that an increase in percentage share of biodiesel blend would contribute to a reduction in diesel consumption and hence crude oil requirement. Consequently, it would generate less CO2 emissions and especially less Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) - an issue of contemporary environmental health concerns. It is, further, revealed that higher shares of biodiesel in diesel would result in an increase demand for oil palm production in order to meet a rising growth in biodiesel production. Such an increase in demand for oil palm feedstock would result in higher commodity prices and therefore higher income for farmers. However, a high oil palm production demand would require a substantial crop cultivation area. The effort to increase palm planting and productivity to meet the growing demand is a challenging task. In order to overcome this challenge, this paper suggests the implementation of agricultural zoning and the advancement of crop species and biodiesel conversion technology.