An assessment of European integration for the EU-15 (1971-2015)

Abstract

A long-term assessment of the EU integration process is attempted for the1971-2015 period, by comparing per capita Gross Domestic Product (in constant Purchasing Power Parities) and its change, for EU-15 and non-EU states that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. A growing divergence is found between Greece but also Portugal and the EU southern periphery on the one hand, and Luxembourg, Ireland and Scandinavian states on the other that have benefi ted from EU integration, especially after the Eurozone was formed. Those EU-15 members that have joined the Eurozone have not benefi ted as much as non-members. It is suggested that two types of states can be trapped by the integration process: The relative or absolute losers of the currency zone, like Greece and states like the UK that have benefi ted less from integration, while choosing to remain at an earlier integration stage. Given the mix of monetary and fi scal policies pursued, resolving the former problem will require setting-up a common production union to advance competitiveness and co-operation, while solution to the latter should avoid the risk of disintegration and of the permanent loss of EU membership.