An Assessment of Counter-Terrorism Options: A State Dependent Terror Queuing Model Perspective

Abstract

The study is an application of a state-dependent queuing theory to evaluate the performance of counterterrorism (CT) options. The CT options examined include the Stick (use of force), the Carrot (non-coercive approaches), their combined variant, and covert agents. The model incorporates state transitions to capture the dynamic nature of terrorist recruitment processes in a CT environment. Performance measures are adapted from conventional queue frameworks to assess the effectiveness of these CT options in mitigating terrorist threats. The study analyses the CT options under an arithmetic progression pattern of terrorist recruitment and state transitions. The results demonstrate the importance of maximizing interdiction rate, discrimination rate, system efficiency, and intelligence integration while minimizing system unfairness factors, response time, and queue length for optimal CT operations. The results of the analysis also highlight a positive correlation between the Stick and the Carrot options, as well as between their intelligence-driven variants, emphasizing the need for a balanced and coordinated intelligence-driven CT approach. The study argues that relying solely on brute force or aggressive law enforcement measures without credible intelligence would be insufficient and counterproductive. It suggests leveraging syndromnized intelligence optimizing pseudo-terrorists (SIOP) agents for enhanced credibility, sufficient intelligence gathering, and covert supervision of terrorists’ compliance to Carrot instruments in the CT environment. The findings contribute to the existing literature on CT research and provide insights for informed decision-making in optimizing CT strategies. The study aims to support the development of more efficient and adaptive approaches to combat terrorism.