An Area-Based Metrics to Evaluate Risk in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Under Uncertainties

Abstract

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used, powerful tool to identify and assess potential failure modes in products and to make products more reliable. Due to the complexity of products and lack of knowledge, FMEA involves many uncertainties in practice. In previous studies, numerous modified FMEA methods based on fuzzy logic and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory have been employed to address these uncertainties. These studies focus on how to handle uncertainties and to identify a more reliable prioritization of risk priority numbers (RPNs). However, studies have not sufficiently examined how many uncertainties are present in resulting RPNs. To better model and process various types of uncertainties in FMEA, two new area-based metrics are constructed in this paper. One is the interval area metric (IAM), which is used in RPN representation. The other is the dimensionless uncertainty metric (DUM), which is used to measure how many uncertainties there are in RPN. IAM is used to rank the risks in failure modes, and DUM is used to rank the uncertainties in failure modes. Then, an expert system is presented to qualitatively evaluate the DUM, which can help FMEA users intuitively judge whether further investigation should be performed to alleviate the epistemic uncertainties in each failure mode. Finally, a practical risk evaluation case regarding the grinding wheel system of a numerically controlled (NC) machine is provided to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed FMEA. The case study shows that the calculation programs of IAM and DUM do not require any assumptions or need to address conflict among experts. In addition, proposed method can not only give a more accurate rating of each failure mode, but also help designers intuitively see the uncertainty grade of each RPN, which is useful to help them understand FMEA results.