Abstract

Hailstorms are meteorological events that have a considerably adverse impact on crop production. Variation of these events in time and space, in turn, influence crop-hail insurance rate structure. Crop-hail insurance companies normally review their rate schedules every 3–5 years. The Illinois State Water Survey, in cooperation with the Crop-Hail Insurance Actuarial Association, has done research applicable to providing guidelines for adjusting state insurance rates up or down, or for keeping them the same for the next few years. The research was designed to develop and test methods of predicting trends in future hail loss cost for various crops grown in the principal hail loss districts across the United States. Time series analysis procedures were performed on the hail loss variable. Results indicated an accuracy of 80% and were sufficiently encouraging to recommend incorporation in the rate-making process.

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