An approach for forecasting of public water scarcity at the end of the 21st century, in the Timiş Plain of Romania

Abstract

The balance between water demand and availability in Romania, as well as in many areas of Europe, will soon reach a critical level if predictions by simulated climate change scenarios are correct. The article is focused on the risk of water shortages, due to the climate change, in the Timiş Plain in Romania, a densely populated region, with 346,818 inhabitants. Estimates of future water availability for public water supply consider relevant socio-economic scenarios for major water users, estimate their future water demand, and assess water shortage for the main users. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, considers water supply, water demand and the consequences of water shortage. The results of the study revealed a vulnerability of the water supply and sewerage networks, an expected increase in households' demand, in the rural and in the urban, an expected increase for industrial and services water demand and a positive dynamic for the livestock water demand and finally a water shortage in the study area.