Abstract
Urbanization and climate change have combined to exacerbate water shortages in cities worldwide. While rapid urbanization is faced with the risk of water resource shortage, there are few studies on the impact of water resource shortage and the ecological environment in mega-regions. Taking the three major urban agglomerations in Western China as an example, the spatial–temporal agglomeration pattern and driving force for the risk of water shortage are analyzed. First, a new comprehensive index system for environmental risks of water resources has been established, which can be used to assess spatial changes in water resource shortage risks. Secondly, the relationship between water resource shortage and the urban agglomeration effect is discussed in regards to water resource vulnerability, exposure, and recoverability. The results showed: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the risk of total water shortage in 12 provinces (cities) in Western China decreased from 3.42 to 2.59; the risk of total water shortage in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration dropped the fastest, with an average annual decline rate of 10.57%. (2) Water resource shortage in different cities of the three major urban agglomerations is out of sync in time and space; the risk level of water shortage is high in the north and low in the south. (3) Geological environmental change is an important influencing factor of water resource shortage; the negative impact of industrial water use on the risk of water shortage is the largest, with a contribution of 24.9%. In addition, this paper also puts forward policy suggestions to alleviate the risks of water shortage in the urbanization process in the western region. This research can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of urban water resources.
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