An application of Wavelet Markov Chains Model to Study Earthquake Occurrence

Abstract

The Arabian Plate, which is colliding with the Iranian (Eurasian) Plate, is where Iraq is located in the northeastern corner. An active Zagros seismic belt is formed by active seismicity at the interaction between the two plates. The research aims study the transition probability between the states of earthquake occurrence and estimate earthquake risk states. Use wavelet Markov chain model which is modern probability theory studies random processes for which the knowledge of previous outcomes influences predictions for future experiments. The data obtained from the Earth Scope website during the year (January 2013 to November 2022). The results show that after 115 months, the chance of an earthquake occurrence not being felt or being felt rarely is (0.009). While the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt slightly by some people is (0.620), the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt frequently by people is (0.124), and the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt by the majority of people in the affected area is (0.237). Everyone believes that the last chance of an earthquake occurring (causing varying degrees of damage to poorly constructed buildings) is 0.008.