An analytic network process approach for sales forecasting

Abstract

New product sales forecast is a difficult but essential task for companies, as it drives a variety of multifunctional decisions. Most new product forecasting literature presents sophisticated statistical techniques and complex methodologies with little or no thought given to ease of implementation. As a result, there is a significant gap between what forecast academics create and what forecast models professionals really seek. This study proposes a new product sales forecast model based on an Analytic Network Process framework. The analytic network process (ANP) is a multicriteria decision analysis technique that takes into account both tangible and intangible criteria with interdependencies and feedback among them. It is argued that the proposed framework is more flexible and is more comprehensive than traditional methods and previously developed models. The ANP model is illustrated through a real example concerning the sales forecast of a new edition (book).