An analysis of the European space weather modelling capabilities

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<p>For many years the Space Weather Office of the European Space Agency has promoted the development of resources for the monitoring of solar activity and its effects on our planet and technology. Current and past activities include the gathering and distribution of data from ground and space observatories, the deployment of specialized instruments onboard hosting satellites, the proposal of new nanosat missions, the promotion of improvements in computer models, and the design of Vigil, the first operational space weather mission in Europe. Multiple international institutions have also developed their own space weather assets. However, in contrast to meteorological forecasts, no prediction centre is still capable to produce accurate forecasts of the space weather conditions in the next days. Private and public institutions around the world are working on the improvement of forecasting tools. For ESA this effort requires additional support on the development of critical modelling techniques, including: data assimilation, uncertainty quantification, ensemble forecasting, machine learning, and model coupling, among others.</p> <p> </p> <p>To have a clear mapping between the existing modelling capabilities in Europe and the user requirements, we invited European experts to participate in the "Space Weather Modelling Workshop" held in March 2023 at ESOC. In this presentation we will show the results of this workshop, including a detailed summary of the European modelling capabilities, a description of the existing gaps and overlaps, an analysis of missing assets, a description of existing bottlenecks, and a plan to improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting. The ESA Space Weather Office has set goals for the next years in the area of modelling, based on the data collected during the workshop, on discussions with the community, and on data from the literature. We will describe how the community can contribute to reach these goals and to develop the new generation of European Space Weather forecasting services.</p>