An analysis of the effects of suburban densification on vehicle use for shopping: Do existing residents respond to land-use changes in the same way as recent movers?

Abstract

Studies examining the influence of smart growth and compact development on travel behavior often focus on a limited subgroup of the population: those who have recently moved from one neighborhood to another. Despite the substantial proportion of existing residents in the population, their responses to land-use changes have not been thoroughly studied. To address this gap in the literature, this study compares two groups of suburban residents in the Atlanta metropolitan area: a treatment group whose neighborhoods experienced increases in density, land-use mix, and street connectivity and a control group whose neighborhoods did not experience such land-use changes. After correcting for self-selection, this study reveals that residents in the treatment group who relocated to suburban neighborhoods before land-use changes drove more miles for household maintenance activities than their control group counterparts in other suburban neighborhoods. The same households, however, drove substantially less for subsistence activities (e.g., commutes to school and work), which more than compensates for the moderate increase in vehicle miles traveled for household maintenance. These findings suggest that increased residential density and land-use mix in older suburbs contributes to a reduction in automobile vehicle miles traveled.