An analysis of shifting educational preferences in Germany: Why do more and more school-leavers opt for higher education rather than dual vocational education and training?

Abstract

This study analyzes the recent shifts in educational preferences among German school-leavers and the possible reasons behind this development. Until around 2007, the dual VET (Vocational Educational and Training) prepared the ground for the majority of young Germans’ entry to the labor market, whilst participation in HE (Higher Education) was at best just around a third of a cohort. School tracking, structural differences in labor market access, and above all positive societal perceptions of the dual VET ensured low numbers of students in HE. Surprisingly, since 2013 the number of German school-leavers entering HE has continuously outweighed the number of trainees in dual VET. This study argues that the growth of educational aspirations among Germans have been most significant in driving the rise in university students and the decline in dual VET trainees. However, shifting educational preferences have undoubtedly also been encouraged by institutional changes allowing greater accessibility to study entitlement for HE, the change to a knowledge-intense service-oriented industry leading to upskilling in the employment sector and new organizational structures in companies, and to some extent by the rise of dual study programs that combine academic and vocational learning.