An Analysis of Future Population Pressures

Abstract

The population issue is 1 major international issue that has suffered and continues to suffer from misinterpretation misrepresentation and deliberate or ignorant distortion for ends which are mostly nonscientific. It does need to be stressed however that the population issue is itself not a simple one of biology or medicine. The mere size of the population is not the only major problem since the indications are 1) that there will be enough space to accommodate this sort of population and 2) that with the proper application of known technology the feeding of a population of the expected size is not likely to go beyond human ingenuity as long as certain political and social barriers are eliminated. However 1 has to be pessimistic about the removal of such political and social barriers. It cannot be expected at this time that the more industrializaed countries will suddenly accept a deliberate effort to slow down their economic growth and assist the less developed nations to progress toward their level. The main future pressures in terms of medicine have to be related not only to the mere size of the population but to its structure. The problem of the future is that infant mortality will probably continue to decrease in some countries or regions rather precipitously. The life expectancy in the developing countries will continue increasing. The population will therefore continue to increase and this will occur despite that fact that many more countries will come to accept family planning as a logical step for population control. However family planning as now practiced cannot posibly lead to population control or global fertility limitation of any consequence. There is a need for realistic planning which includes a drastic limitation of the population. Doctors need to recognize their leadership role be informed about what can be done and support and encourage social activities which will really deal with the problems. Methods of fertility control should be freely and readily available and research for safer and more effective methods must be continued.