Abstract
Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power plants can have important “co-benefits” for public health by reducing emissions of air pollutants. Here, we examine the costs and health co-benefits, in monetary terms, for a policy that resembles the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. We then examine the spatial distribution of the co-benefits and costs, and the implications of a range of cost assumptions in the implementation year of 2020. Nationwide, the total health co-benefits were $29 billion 2010 USD (95% CI: $2.3 to $68 billion), and net co-benefits under our central cost case were $12 billion (95% CI: -$15 billion to $51 billion). Net co-benefits for this case in the implementation year were positive in 10 of the 14 regions studied. The results for our central case suggest that all but one region should experience positive net benefits within 5 years after implementation.
Highlights
In June 2014, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed draft standards for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants–the Clean Power Plan–which were finalized in August 2015[1]
Fossil fuel-fired power plants make up 31% of U.S greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, largely CO2, and by 2030, the final version of the Clean Power Plan would reduce CO2 emissions by 32% below 2005 levels[1]
The Integrated Planning Model (IPM)[12], a dynamic power sector production cost linear optimization model of the North American power grid, was used to simulate the power sector response to the carbon standard, and to estimate emissions of CO2, SO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx), and directly emitted PM2.5 from 2,417 fossil fuel-fired power plants in the U.S under a “business-as-usual” (BAU) reference scenario based on the U.S Energy Information Administration 2013 Annual Energy Outlook [13] and a moderately stringent but highly flexible policy scenario, available in 2014, that resembles the final Clean Power Plan, using 2020 as an implementation year
Summary
In June 2014, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed draft standards for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants–the Clean Power Plan–which were finalized in August 2015[1]. We build on the analysis of air quality and health co-benefits in Driscoll et al.[2] by estimating and mapping co-benefits and costs for 14 power supply regions under the policy scenario that most closely resembles the U.S Clean Power Plan. We calculate annual net co-benefits in the implementation year as the difference between the value of co-benefits for the central estimate and 95% confidence intervals and costs for the three cases.
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