An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate Protective Action Strategies in a Water Distribution Contamination Event

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Water distribution systems are vulnerable to both intentional and accidental contamination, which endangers public health and erodes public trust in municipal services. Appropriate protective actions should be selected by public officials or utility managers as the contaminant propagates through the network to best protect public health. Response actions typically attempt to control hydraulics in the network or the water consumption of the public, and decision-makers may be made aware of a security threat through consumer complaints or public health services. Consumers can be influenced to reduce their water consumption through, for example, boil water orders and drinking water restrictions. The interactions and information exchange between the utility managers and consumers will dynamically influence the system hydraulics, increasing the complexity of the decision-making process for the utility managers. An agent-based modeling framework was developed to simulate the dynamic and adaptive actions and reactions in a contamination event. Utility managers and consumers are modeled as agents, and the agent-based model was coupled with a water distribution system simulator to predict the emergent public health for diverse protective action strategies. The modeling framework is applied to a virtual case study, Mesopolis, to investigate the significance of the interactions among consumers and utility managers in water distribution system threat management.