Abstract
Consider a finite population of large but unknown size of hidden objects. Consider searching for these objects for a period of time, at a certain cost, and receiving a reward depending on the sizes of the objects found. Suppose that the size and discovery time of the objects both have unknown distributions, but the conditional distribution of time given size is exponential with an unknown non-negative and non-decreasing function of the size as failure rate. The goal is to find an optimal way to stop the discovery process. Assuming that the above parameters are known, an optimal stopping time is derived and its asymptotic properties are studied. Then, an adaptive rule based on order restricted estimates of the distributions from truncated data is presented. This adaptive rule is shown to perform nearly as well as the optimal stopping time for large population size.
Published Version
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