Abstract

Abstract. End-to-end modelling is a rapidly developing strategy for modelling in marine systems science and management. However, problems remain in the area of data matching and sub-model compatibility. A mechanism and novel interfacing system (Couplerlib) is presented whereby a physical–biogeochemical model (General Ocean Turbulence Model–European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model, GOTM–ERSEM) that predicts dynamics of the lower trophic level (LTL) organisms in marine ecosystems is coupled to a dynamic ecosystem model (Ecosim), which predicts food-web interactions among higher trophic level (HTL) organisms. Coupling is achieved by means of a bespoke interface, which handles the system incompatibilities between the models and a more generic Couplerlib library, which uses metadata descriptions in extensible mark-up language (XML) to marshal data between groups, paying attention to functional group mappings and compatibility of units between models. In addition, within Couplerlib, models can be coupled across networks by means of socket mechanisms. As a demonstration of this approach, a food-web model (Ecopath with Ecosim, EwE) and a physical–biogeochemical model (GOTM–ERSEM) representing the North Sea ecosystem were joined with Couplerlib. The output from GOTM–ERSEM varies between years, depending on oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Although inter-annual variability was clearly present, there was always the tendency for an annual cycle consisting of a peak of diatoms in spring, followed by (less nutritious) flagellates and dinoflagellates through the summer, resulting in an early summer peak in the mesozooplankton biomass. Pelagic productivity, predicted by the LTL model, was highly seasonal with little winter food for the higher trophic levels. The Ecosim model was originally based on the assumption of constant annual inputs of energy and, consequently, when coupled, pelagic species suffered population losses over the winter months. By contrast, benthic populations were more stable (although the benthic linkage modelled was purely at the detritus level, so this stability reflects the stability of the Ecosim model). The coupled model was used to examine long-term effects of environmental change, and showed the system to be nutrient limited and relatively unaffected by forecast climate change, especially in the benthos. The stability of an Ecosim formulation for large higher tropic level food webs is discussed and it is concluded that this kind of coupled model formulation is better for examining the effects of long-term environmental change than short-term perturbations.

Highlights

  • A mechanism and novel interfacing system (Couplerlib) is presented whereby a physical–biogeochemical model (General Ocean Turbulence Model–European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model, GOTM– ERSEM) that predicts dynamics of the lower trophic level (LTL) organisms in marine ecosystems is coupled to a dynamic ecosystem model (Ecosim), which predicts food-web interactions among higher trophic level (HTL) organisms

  • End-to-end modelling is becoming a hot topic in marine systems (Rose et al, 2010) primarily because of the need, implied by regulatory frameworks such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for monitoring and management of the marine systems to take into account distal effects of any deliberate or accidental anthropogenic changes to parts of the marine ecosystem, and modelling is used to predict how indicators, such as critical species biomasses, might relate to ecosystem change

  • Consumption of phytoplankton directly by higher trophic level groups (e.g. Fish Larvae) is a relatively unimportant energy flow in the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) models we have studied with only 3.2 g m−2 year−1 out of 60.8 g m−2 year−1 total predation not being consumed by zooplankton, so this inaccuracy has little effect on the zooplankton mediated energy flows

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Summary

Introduction

End-to-end modelling is becoming a hot topic in marine systems (Rose et al, 2010) primarily because of the need, implied by regulatory frameworks such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) (http://ec.europa.eu/ environment/marine/index_en.htm) for monitoring and management of the marine systems to take into account distal effects of any deliberate or accidental anthropogenic changes to parts of the marine ecosystem, and modelling is used to predict how indicators, such as critical species biomasses, might relate to ecosystem change. The end-to-end modelling of Kearney (2012) links the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography (NEMURO) lower trophic level model with a 23 component EwE model, achieves ecosystem stability, as well as intra- and inter-annual variation in biomass of higher and lower trophic level species, though it does not encapsulate all the processes that lead to variation in fish populations, especially recruitment variation. Coupled lower trophic level–higher trophic level (LTL–HTL) model systems should allow for iterative exchange of data among models, capturing important feedback processes within an ecosystem They should enable us to investigate ecological issues, such as how changes in phytoplankton abundance in shelf seas might be attributed simultaneously to Geosci.

Methodology
Principles of model coupling
Couplerlib design and specifications
Metadata information exchange and specification
Use of Graphical User Interfaces – model front ends
The LTL and HTL models
The biology of the coupling
The coupling process in action
EwE model re-parameterization
One-dimensional two-way coupling between LTL and HTL
Long-term effects of changes in the physical environment on fish biomass
Code availability
Full Text
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