Abstract
Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events. Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak drought conditions in California. From 2008–2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However, body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.
Highlights
Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century
We draw upon nearly a decade of amphibian (T. torosa) trait response data collected across the highly biodiverse California Floristic Province to quantify broadly the ecological consequences of recent extreme climatic events and to predict population responses to future climate
To assess the ecological impacts of extreme climatic events, we evaluated adult male body condition of T. torosa from 30 sites distributed across the species’ latitudinal range (32.8°N to 39.4°N, >700 km; Fig. 1a, sampled locations) during a period (2008–2016) that overlapped with the most severe drought inferred to occur in California during the last 1,200 years[3]
Summary
Trait-based analyses have helped to explain species’ sensitivities to climate change[7], but have been used less commonly as a tool to assess the impacts of recent climate extremes and to improve efforts to buffer the potential negative effects of rapid climate deviations. This is especially important across the North American Southwest that is simultaneously a biodiversity and a climate change hotspot[10], making it at once a region faced with severe climate stress and major conservation pressure. Ecological Research Center, San Diego Field Station, 4165 Spruance Road, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, 92101, USA
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