American black bear habitat selection in northern Lower Peninsula, Michigan, USA, using discrete-choice modeling

Abstract

Abstract Since 1990, increases in American black bear (Ursus americanus) population and distribution in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA, have led to positive trends in black bear harvests, sightings, and nuisance reports. Policy makers and wildlife managers can prepare for the difficult task of managing future bear–human interactions by using resource selection models to assess bear habitat selection and predict future bear range expansion. We modeled habitat selection by black bears in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan using 6 environmental variables based on radiotelemetry locations from 1991–2000 for 20 males and 35 females. We developed Bayesian random effects discrete-choice models for males and females separately to estimate probability of bear selection of grid cells at 3 spatial resolutions (1 km2, 4 km2, 9 km2). These models weight individual bears and their relocations, allowing inference about both individual and population-level selection characteristics. We assessed goodness-of-fi...