America, China and India: A 3-D competition model for economic & strategic interests in South East Asia

Abstract

This paper provides a new and different perspective on the competition-collaboration dynamic in business and international relations, using a hypothetical model involving three nations—the United States, China and India. While the United States has been preoccupied with internal squabbles and external wars, India and China have been quietly emerging as powerful Asian states, building relationships both economic and military. The two countries have had a competitive relationship for several decades, not the least of which has been competing for a more muscular economic, political, and military alliance with the United States. This paper seeks to identify the relationships between the two nations and the United States in an effort to quantify the conditions under which a stable three-way balance of power may exist, using classic competition modeling. Simulations demonstrate stable coexistence when each market consumes most of the resource for which the other two are better competitors, oscillations in market dominance when each consumes most of the resource for which one is a better competitor and one is a worse competitor, and unstable coexistence or extinction when each market consumes most of the resource for which it is the better competitor. The population competition model employed for analysis is a novel way to look at collaboration and competition within multination treaties. This quantitative paper is a first step to a later qualitative analysis of the values presented.